Lula 2

Lula’s electoral return, wining the presidential election, is almost like a Phoenix.

The former metal worker turned Union leader turned leading politician with an anti-imperialist brand turned symbol of hope to millions in Brazil and far, distant lands was booked and banished on false charge of corruption.

But Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva came out from behind bar. He re-occupied central stage of Brazil politics, a difficult area to compass with its scores of divisions and sub-divisions and sub-sub-divisions. It takes longer minutes to count the number of political parties and groups and sub-groups in the Brazilian political theater. No doubt, all of these represent intents and interests. This makes alignments in politics difficult.

The pandemic scene created another complex of equations to comprehend – the Right camp’s so much indifference to life of the commoners leading to one of the top-most spots at the pandemic-death-list in the world, the right camp’s corruption, loot and persecution of people that surpass many countries, that appears fascistic, the unrestrained expropriation of a vast commons – the Amazon – leading to harming this Earth, although there’s a long, powerful and organized movement of a big part of the poor, but the right camp pulled a huge number of votes in the presidential election, a part of the right, once one of the factions the Empire trusted most, veered closer to Moscow while the Empire and all in its orbit took aggressively anti-Moscow measures. These make equations in the socio-political scene a complex.

But the economic scene is as it was years-back – increasing poverty and inequality, deprivation and exploitation. Indicators that help understand the level of comfort or hardship in the commoners’ life show the subalterns are unabatedly pressed down.  Whatever progress, noteworthy, Lula and his successor, Dilma Rousseff, made during their terms in presidential office has been washed away by the Rightist onslaught that usurped power by pushing out Lula years back.

Yet strange – the Right carry substantial power, in term of number, in the legislative branch. What does constitute this segment of power in a part of the state? No reason to assume that that goes without class power – a class owning a power to capture a portion of the legislative assembly influencing political decisions impacting allocation of fund.

Bolsonaro, the defeated Rightist leader, carries support among a part of elites, and a good number of truckers. The truckers exhibited their power by blocking more than 300 roads across the country rejecting the election result. Only Bolsonaro could pursue the truckers to withdraw the blockades. There’re the transportation and agri-business lobbies in the country, one of the world’s largest food exporters. This helps picture a part of the coming political actions and reactions after Lula begins his term.

This will, consequently, impact Lula’s political journey while sitting on the presidential chair. And, the future of a major part of the Left in Brazil will not go untouched.

The big economy in Latin America, a major part of the BRICS, has many potentialities to impact geopolitics stretching continents. That might be positive for people strengthening the anti-imperialist trend.

Whatever path Lula succeeds or fails to tread, stumbles or steadfastly moves, a major impact will be in Latin America. Peoples’ struggles for democracy and a life with dignity, their struggles to push out imperialism – spaces for people will get impact of Lula’s success or failure. Cuba, the exemplary country in the world, will have wider opportunity to widen its space for building up an economy better than the Empire, the island-country’s biggest enemy, if Lula succeeds in materializing aspirations of peoples in Brazil and in other lands.

But, with the Brazilian political equations and imperialist tricks and conspiracies, Lula’s march will be difficult. Moreover, his conciliatory moves to neutralize hostile forces, his political maneuvers may confuse sections of his friends; even lead them to abandon his tent. For Lula, moments ahead are treacherous.

[The article was published as comment in Frontier, Kolkata, in its Vol 55, No.21, Nov 20 – 26, 2022 issue.]


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