Post Tagged with: "Peak Oil"

The Project of Capital and the Project of the Proletariat in a time of World Crisis

The Project of Capital and the Project of the Proletariat in a time of World Crisis

ABSTRACT This is a response to the two sets of articles written by Sajai Jose on the Fourth Industrial Revolution and on the world’s and India’s hunger crisis. It is in two parts. In the first part it lays the historical background of the response of capital in the face of periodic crises it faces and people’s response to it.[Read More…]

by 03/10/2021 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
Why Collapse Occurs; Why It May Not Be Far Away

Why Collapse Occurs; Why It May Not Be Far Away

Collapse is a frightening subject. The question of why collapse occurs is something I have pieced together over many years of study from a number of different sources, which I will attempt to explain in this post. Collapse doesn’t happen instantaneously; it happens many years after an economy first begins outgrowing its resource base. In fact, the resource base likely declines at[Read More…]

by 26/02/2021 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
Fossil Fuel Production Is Reaching Limits in a Strange Way

Fossil Fuel Production Is Reaching Limits in a Strange Way

Strangely enough, the limit we seem to be reaching with respect to fossil fuel extraction comes from low prices. At low prices, the extraction of oil, coal, and natural gas becomes unprofitable. Producers go bankrupt, or they voluntarily cut back production in an attempt to force prices higher. As the result of these forces, production tends to fall. This limit comes long[Read More…]

by 16/10/2020 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
Debunking ‘Lower Oil Supply Will Raise Prices’

Debunking ‘Lower Oil Supply Will Raise Prices’

We often hear the statement, “When oil supply is lower, oil prices will rise because of scarcity.” Now, we are getting to see firsthand whether oil prices really do rise, as oil supplies become more scarce. Figure 1. Figure from the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for August 2019 showing world and OPEC oil production by month. Figure 1 shows that world[Read More…]

by 23/08/2019 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
Have We Already Passed World Peak Oil and World Peak Coal?

Have We Already Passed World Peak Oil and World Peak Coal?

Most people expect that our signal of an impending reduction in world oil or coal production will be high prices. Looking at historical data (for example, this post and this post), this is precisely the opposite of the correct price signal. Oil and coal supplies decline because prices fall too low for producers. These producers make voluntary cutbacks because the prices they receive fall below their[Read More…]

by 23/02/2019 2 comments Resource Crisis
Electricity won’t save us from our oil problems

Electricity won’t save us from our oil problems

Almost everyone seems to believe that our energy problems are primarily oil-related. Electricity will save us. I recently gave a talk to a group of IEEE electricity researchers (primarily engineers) about the current energy situation and how welcoming it is for new technologies. Needless to say, this group did not come with the standard mindset. They wanted to understand what the[Read More…]

by 21/12/2018 1 comment Resource Crisis
Peak Diesel or no Peak Diesel? The Debate is Ongoing

Peak Diesel or no Peak Diesel? The Debate is Ongoing

In a recent post, Antonio Turiel proposed that the global peak of diesel fuel production was reached three years ago, in 2018. Turiel’s idea is especially interesting since it takes into account the fact that what we call “oil” is actually a wide variety of liquids of different characteristics. The current boom of the extraction of tight oil (known also[Read More…]

by 17/12/2018 1 comment Resource Crisis
Pic credit: www.enincon.com

10 years after the oil price spike: Is peak oil a process rather than a moment?

Ten years ago this week—July 11, 2008 to be exact—the price of a barrel of oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange hit an intraday high of $147.27, its highest price ever. By the following autumn the world economy was in shambles and the price of oil was tumbling. The oil price eventually bottomed out around $34 per barrel in mid-February the following[Read More…]

by 10/07/2018 2 comments Resource Crisis
Why the Standard Model of Future Energy Supply Doesn’t Work

Why the Standard Model of Future Energy Supply Doesn’t Work

The most prevalent view regarding future oil supply, as well as total energy supply, seems to be fairly closely related to that expressed by Peak Oilers. Future fossil fuel supply is assumed to be determined by the resources in the ground and the technology available for extraction. Prices are assumed to rise as fossil fuels are depleted, allowing more expensive[Read More…]

by 05/04/2018 2 comments Resource Crisis
Our Latest Oil Predicament

Our Latest Oil Predicament

It is impossible to tell the whole oil story, but perhaps I can offer a few insights regarding where we are today. [1] We already seem to be back to the falling oil prices and refilling storage tanks scenario. US crude oil stocks hit their low point on January 19, 2018 and have started to rise again. The amount of crude oil fill[Read More…]

by 14/03/2018 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
Will China Bring An Energy-Debt Crisis?

Will China Bring An Energy-Debt Crisis?

It is easy for those of us in the West to overlook how important China has become to the world economy, and also the limits it is reaching. The two big areas in which China seems to be reaching limits are energy production and debt. Reaching either of these limits could eventually cause a collapse. China is reaching energy production limits in a[Read More…]

by 09/11/2017 1 comment Resource Crisis
The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis

The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis

I was recently asked to give a talk called, “The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis.” In other words, how might the United States encounter problems that lead to a crisis? As we will see, many of the problems that could lead to a crisis (such as increased wage disparity and difficulty in collecting enough taxes) are issues that we are already beginning[Read More…]

by 20/10/2017 1 comment Resource Crisis
Why political correctness fails – Why what we know ‘for sure’ is wrong (Ex Religion)

Why political correctness fails – Why what we know ‘for sure’ is wrong (Ex Religion)

Most of us are familiar with the Politically Correct (PC) World View. William Deresiewicz describes the view, which he calls the “religion of success,” as follows: There is a right way to think and a right way to talk, and also a right set of things to think and talk about. Secularism is taken for granted. Environmentalism is a sacred cause. Issues[Read More…]

by 03/10/2017 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
Energy And Authoritarianism

Energy And Authoritarianism

Could declining world energy result in a turn toward authoritarianism by governments around the world? As we will see, there is no simple answer that applies to all countries. However, pursuing the question leads us on an illuminating journey through the labyrinth of relations between energy, economics, and politics. The International Energy Agency and the Energy Information Administration (part of[Read More…]

by 27/09/2017 1 comment Resource Crisis
Why Oil Prices Can’t Bounce Very High; Expect Deflation Instead

Why Oil Prices Can’t Bounce Very High; Expect Deflation Instead

Economists have given us a model of how prices and quantities of goods are supposed to interact. Figure 1. From Wikipedia: The price P of a product is determined by a balance between production at each price (supply S) and the desires of those with purchasing power at each price (demand D). The diagram shows a positive shift in demand[Read More…]

by 12/09/2017 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
After Peak Oil, Are We Heading Toward Social Collapse?

After Peak Oil, Are We Heading Toward Social Collapse?

  Several years ago, Glen Sweetnam, director of the International, Economic and Greenhouse Gas division of the Energy Information Administration at the Department of Energy (DOE), announced that worldwide oil availability had reached a “plateau.” However, his statement was not made known through a major US mainstream media outlet. Instead, it was covered in France’s Le Monde. One could assume[Read More…]

by 01/07/2017 2 comments Resource Crisis
Falling Interest Rates Have Postponed “Peak Oil”

Falling Interest Rates Have Postponed “Peak Oil”

Falling interest rates have huge power. My background is as an actuary, so I am very much aware of the great power of interest rates. But a lot of people are not aware of this power, including, I suspect, some of the people making today’s decisions to raise interest rates. Similar people want to sell securities now being held by[Read More…]

by 12/06/2017 3 comments Resource Crisis
“Peak Hats.” Social Change And The Coming Demise of Private Cars

“Peak Hats.” Social Change And The Coming Demise of Private Cars

For a long time, hats were oversized and expensive status symbols more than tools for protecting people’s heads. During the past half century or so, they have nearly disappeared. A similar destiny may befall on private cars, also oversized and expensive status symbols rather than tools for transporting people. With the disappearance of cars, we may see hats coming back. [Read More…]

by 21/05/2017 1 comment Resource Crisis
The Apple And The Ant

The Apple And The Ant

Antonio Turiel keeps what I think is one of the best blogs in the world (perhaps the best) dedicated to energy and fossil fuels: The Oil Crash. Too bad that, despite the title, the blog is written in Spanish. But if you can read Spanish or are willing to spend some time to decipher a Google translation, then you can truly[Read More…]

by 12/05/2017 1 comment Resource Crisis
Why We Should Be Concerned About Low Oil Prices

Why We Should Be Concerned About Low Oil Prices

Most people assume that oil prices, and for that matter other energy prices, will rise as we reach limits. This isn’t really the way the system works; oil prices can be expected to fall too low, as we reach limits. Thus, we should not be surprised if the OPEC/Russia agreement to limit oil extraction falls apart, and oil prices fall[Read More…]

by 05/05/2017 2 comments Resource Crisis
Ambedkar, Nationalism And The Emerging Crises In India

Ambedkar, Nationalism And The Emerging Crises In India

Today is Ambedkar Jayanti. It would be appropriate to take a re-look at Ambedkar’s idea of nationalism in the face of virulent Hindutva nationalism in India and also on the global context

Pic credit: www.enincon.com

From Syria To Monsanto: A Moribund System Of Deceit And Destruction

  Today, as the dominant global power, the US roles out its brand of unfettered capitalism across the world. US citizens constitute just five percent of the world’s population but consume 24 percent of global energy. Consider the consequences of a US-style model of ‘development’ if it were to be aspired to and copied throughout the world (which it is in places[Read More…]

by 07/04/2017 1 comment Globalisation
Why Energy-Economy Models Produce Overly Optimistic Indications

Why Energy-Economy Models Produce Overly Optimistic Indications

I was asked to give a talk to a committee of actuaries who are concerned about modeling the financial future of programs, such as pension plans, given the energy problems that are often discussed. They (and the consultants that they hire) have been using an approach that puts problems far off into the future. I was trying to explain why[Read More…]

by 30/03/2017 1 comment Resource Crisis
2017: The Year When The World Economy Starts Coming Apart

2017: The Year When The World Economy Starts Coming Apart

Some people would argue that 2016 was the year that the world economy started to come apart, with the passage of Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. Whether or not the “coming apart” process started in 2016, in my opinion we are going to see many more steps in this direction in 2017. Let me explain a few of[Read More…]

by 11/01/2017 3 comments Resource Crisis
What Has Gone Wrong With Oil Prices, Debt, And GDP Growth?

What Has Gone Wrong With Oil Prices, Debt, And GDP Growth?

Our economy is a mystery to almost everyone, including economists. Let me explain the way I see the situation: (1) The big thing that pulls the economy forward is the time-shifting nature of debt and debt-like instruments. If we want any kind of specialization, we need some sort of long-term obligation that will make that specialization worthwhile. If one hunter-gatherer[Read More…]

by 09/12/2016 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
Peak Oil In A Fact-Free World: The New “Oil Bonanza” In West Texas

Peak Oil In A Fact-Free World: The New “Oil Bonanza” In West Texas

So, the USGS comes out with a press release that the media immediately diffuse in terms of a great discovery: 20 billion barrels, somewhere in Texas in a place called “Wolfcamp”.  Bloomberg multiplies the number by the current oil price and comes up with a title that reads: “A $900 billion Oil Treasure,” for a piece that tells of “bonanza”[Read More…]

by 01/12/2016 1 comment Resource Crisis
Peak Oil By Any Other Name Is Still Peak Oil

Peak Oil By Any Other Name Is Still Peak Oil

One of the most compelling charts I have ever seen is the “Growing Gap” chart that used to appear in every ASPO Newsletter. This is the one from the last ASPO Newsletter, written by Colin Campbell and published in April 2009. Since then, more than seven years have passed, and peak oil has disappeared from the mainstream press headlines–almost. On[Read More…]

by 01/12/2016 1 comment Resource Crisis
Why Energy Prices Are Ultimately Headed Lower; What The IMF Missed

Why Energy Prices Are Ultimately Headed Lower; What The IMF Missed

We have been hearing a great deal about IMF concerns recently, after the release of itsOctober 2016 World Economic Outlook and its Annual Meeting October 7-9. The concerns mentioned include the following: Too much growth in debt, with China particularly mentioned as a problem World economic growth seems to have slowed on a long-term basis Central bank intervention required to produce[Read More…]

by 13/10/2016 1 comment Resource Crisis
What Really Causes Falling Productivity Growth:An Energy-Based Explanation

What Really Causes Falling Productivity Growth:An Energy-Based Explanation

What really causes falling productivity growth? The answer seems to be very much energy-related. Human labor by itself does not cause productivity growth. It is human labor, leveraged by various tools, that leads to productivity growth. These tools are made using energy, and they often use energy to operate. A decrease in energy consumption by the business sector can be[Read More…]

by 21/09/2016 1 comment Resource Crisis
An Asteroid Called “Peak Oil” – The Real Cause Of The Growing Social Inequality In The US

An Asteroid Called “Peak Oil” – The Real Cause Of The Growing Social Inequality In The US

In a recent article on the Huffington Post, Stan Sorscher reports the graph above and asks the question of what could have happened in the early 1970s that changed everything. Impressive, but what caused this “something” that happened in the early 1970s? According to Sorscher, X marks the spot. In this case, “X” is our choice of national values. We[Read More…]

by 15/09/2016 1 comment Resource Crisis
An Updated Version Of The “Peak Oil” Story

An Updated Version Of The “Peak Oil” Story

The Peak Oil story got some things right. Back in 1998, Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrère wrote an article published in Scientific American called, “The End of Cheap Oil.” In it they said: Our analysis of the discovery and production of oil fields around the world suggests that within the next decade, the supply of conventional oil will be unable to keep[Read More…]

by 09/08/2016 1 comment Resource Crisis
Overly Simple Energy-Economy Models Give Misleading Answers

Overly Simple Energy-Economy Models Give Misleading Answers

Does it make a difference if our models of energy and the economy are overly simple? I would argue that it depends on what we plan to use the models for. If all we want to do is determine approximately how many years in the future energy supplies will turn down, then a simple model is perfectly sufficient. But if[Read More…]

by 26/07/2016 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
Some reflections on the Twilight of the Oil Age (part III)

Some reflections on the Twilight of the Oil Age (part III)

Our predicament, as we have just begun to slide down the fossil fuels thermodynamic cliff, similarly requires such a nexus if we are to succeed at a new “energy pool shift”. Just focusing on thermodynamics and technology won’t suffice. The kind of paradigm change I keep referring to integrates technology, social innovations and innovation concerning the human psyche about ways of avoiding cognitive failure. This is a lot to ask, however it is necessary to address Tainter’s questions

by 21/07/2016 1 comment Resource Crisis
Some Reflections On The Twilight Of The Oil Age (Part II)

Some Reflections On The Twilight Of The Oil Age (Part II)

I call the process we are in an “Oil Pearl Harbour”, taking place in a kind of eerie slow motion. This is no longer retrievable. Within roughly ten years the oil industry as we know it will have disintegrated. The GIW is presently defenceless in the face of this threat

Some Reflections On The Twilight Of The Oil Age – part I

Some Reflections On The Twilight Of The Oil Age – part I

This three-part post was inspired by Ugo Bardi’s recent post concerning “Will Renewables Ever ReplaceFossils?” and recent discussions within Ugo’s discussion group on how is it that “Economists still don’t get it”?  It integrates also numerous discussion and exchanges I have had with colleagues and business partners over the last three years. Introduction Since at least the end of 2014[Read More…]

Energy Limits: Why We See Rising Wealth Disparity And Low Prices

Energy Limits: Why We See Rising Wealth Disparity And Low Prices

Prices of oil, coal, and natural gas tend to rise and fall together–just as we would expect, if they are all responding to the same changes in debt levels, and indirectly, the same changes in world economic growth rates. If energy prices are based on debt levels, our concern should be that all fossil fuels will peak within a few years of each other. The cause of the peak will be low prices, not “running out” of energy products

by 06/07/2016 1 comment Resource Crisis
Oil, Interest Rates And Debt

Oil, Interest Rates And Debt

The recent lower oil price predictably stimulates more consumption, but as more consumers will continue to struggle with their balance sheets, they are now more sensitive to considerable increases in the oil price. This creates for an interesting situation; the price a growing number of consumers find affordable may be lower than what the oil companies need to go after the costlier oil and retire their debts in an orderly way.

by 30/06/2016 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
China: Is Peak Coal Part Of Its Problem?

China: Is Peak Coal Part Of Its Problem?

The world’s coal resources are clearly huge. How could China, or the world in total, reach peak coal in a timeframe that makes a difference? If we look at China’s coal production and consumption in BP’s 2016 Statistical Review of World Energy (SRWE), this is what we see: Figure 1. China’s production and consumption of coal based on BP 2016 SRWE. Figure 2[Read More…]

by 20/06/2016 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
Demand Destruction And Peak Oil

Demand Destruction And Peak Oil

We are fully under the influence of petroleum demand destruction. The global oil market can’t function without real oil production price discovery, which doesn’t exist in the currently deflationary global economy, which forces indebted producers to sell far below cost. Both supply and demand seem to cyclic in nature and we are not finished with the supply destruction phase, which[Read More…]

by 17/06/2016 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
$50 Oil Doesn’t Work

$50 Oil Doesn’t Work

$50 per barrel oil is clearly less impossible to live with than $30 per barrel oil, because most businesses cannot make a profit with $30 per barrel oil. But is $50 per barrel oil helpful? I would argue that it really is not. When oil was over $100 per barrel, human beings in many countries were getting the benefit of[Read More…]

by 17/06/2016 Comments are Disabled Uncategorized
The Real Oil Limits Story; What Other Researchers Missed

The Real Oil Limits Story; What Other Researchers Missed

For a long time, a common assumption has been that the world will eventually “run out” of oil and other non-renewable resources. Instead, we seem to be running into surpluses and low prices. What is going on that was missed by M. King Hubbert, Harold Hotelling, and by the popular understanding of supply and demand? The underlying assumption in these[Read More…]

by 17/06/2016 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
The Physics Of Energy And The Economy

The Physics Of Energy And The Economy

I approach the subject of the physics of energy and the economy with some trepidation. An economy seems to be a dissipative system, but what does this really mean? There are not many people who understand dissipative systems, and very few who understand how an economy operates. The combination leads to an awfully lot of false beliefs about the energy[Read More…]

by 17/06/2016 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
Why “Supply And Demand” Doesn’t Work For Oil

Why “Supply And Demand” Doesn’t Work For Oil

The traditional understanding of supply and demand works in some limited cases–will a manufacturer make red dresses or blue dresses? The manufacturer’s choice doesn’t make much difference to the economic system as a whole, except perhaps in the amount of red and blue dye sold, so it is easy to accommodate. Figure 1. From Wikipedia: The price P of a[Read More…]

by 17/06/2016 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis
How Our Energy Problem Leads To A Debt Collapse Problem

How Our Energy Problem Leads To A Debt Collapse Problem

Usually, we don’t stop to think about how the whole economy works together. A major reason is that we have been lacking data to see long-term relationships. In this post, I show some longer-term time series relating to energy growth, GDP growth, and debt growth–going back to 1820 in some cases–that help us understand our situation better. When examining these[Read More…]

by 17/06/2016 Comments are Disabled Globalisation, Resource Crisis
Oil And The Economy: Where Are We Headed In 2015-16?

Oil And The Economy: Where Are We Headed In 2015-16?

The price of oil is down. How should we expect the economy to perform in 2015 and 2016? Newspapers in the United States seem to emphasize the positive aspects of the drop in prices. I have written Ten Reasons Why High Oil Prices are a Problem. If our only problem were high oil prices, then low oil prices would seem to[Read More…]

by 17/06/2016 Comments are Disabled Resource Crisis