The most urgent need in Gaza is undoubtedly for a permanent ceasefire and for conditions of peace to be established immediately, so that a very large-scale relief and rehabilitation effort can be carried out within Gaza. There should be very generous support for this from all over the world.
While this is of predominant importance and everything else is of secondary importance it is nevertheless useful to have a proper understanding of the recent tragic events in this region. There are several gaps which are puzzling, and a better understanding will be helpful for taking forward the peace process while isolating those who obstruct the path of peace.
There are essentially three narratives of the tragic events that have recently happened in this region.
The first narrative is the one having predominant acceptance just now. According to this narrative, the Hamas took advantage of a certain complacency within the Israeli security establishment to prepare secretly for a big attack on Gaza on October 7, 2023 which caught the Israeli security establishment entirely by surprise resulting in a large number of deaths and hostages being taken. This large number of deaths and hostages so shocked Israel as to result in a highly disproportionate response aimed at entirely eliminating the Hamas but which has actually resulted in conditions which increasingly look like a genocide and ethnical cleansing.
While this is still the predominant narrative several factors have led to questioning of this. Several Israeli surveillance soldiers had been making written submissions repeatedly for several weeks or even months preceding October 7 regarding very big preparations being made by the Hamas close to the border, including preparations like breaching fences, storing explosives and capturing tanks and hostages (Reference 1 or R1 and R2). Several videos of such training and preparations were widely circulating. (R3)
Egypt had warned about such an attack at a high level (R4). The date of the attack was very close to the anniversary of a big earlier attack but despite this the security was very lax on the day of the attack, about half the security forces were missing in the area concerned and a music festival (where ultimately a large number of civilians became easy targets) had been given an extended approval despite the border being far short of security forces. The New York Times reported that the Israeli security establishment had a blueprint of the intended attack for almost a year and the actual attack was very similar to what had been described here (R5). Keeping in view the fact that Gaza and its borders in particular are such a high surveillance zone, there is disbelief regarding how all the weapons could have been smuggled in and kept hidden for a long time (R6) and that an attack by about 3000 persons, or preparation for the same, was not detected earlier. Questions have been raised regarding the somewhat late response of the Israeli security forces and many Israelis being killed and a lot of other damage taking place by the firing of the Israeli forces. Israeli official sources have been saying that all this will be explored in detail after the war is over, but many people feel that it is important to know more about all this now to understand what really happened.
This brings us to the second narrative which says that actually the Israeli security forces had come to know about the preparations for the attack much in advance but chose to turn away their eyes from this so that they can have the pretext for a much bigger attack on Gaza as a response to this.
The third narrative goes a step further and says that certain elements in the Israeli security establishment may have actually encouraged and helped such an attack by using their previous links with certain elements in Hamas, their aim being to find the pretext for a much bigger attack on Gaza amounting more or less to ethnic cleansing. This may have happened directly or indirectly, using intermediaries. This narrative goes back to the earlier financial and other help facilitated by the Israeli security establishment, particularly under the watch of Netanyahu, to help the Hamas to emerge as the leading force in Gaza so that a secular leadership having more international acceptance would not emerge among the Palestinians and there would be opposition to unity with the Palestinian Authority, thereby impeding a two-state solution as well. While several reports of such help in the past have appeared, including of self-confessions, this would have inevitably involved some links between certain elements of Israeli security establishment and certain elements of Hamas, direct or through certain intermediaries, which could have been utilized recently too. (R7) If this narrative is accepted, then the blueprint of an attack that is reported to have been with the Israeli security establishment for a year may be something to which the Israeli security establishment may itself have contributed much.
The second and third narratives are highly uncomfortable for the Israeli security establishment as well as for the Hamas. The academic community too prefers to avoid discussion of such possibilities. The western establishment would also be uncomfortable with these narratives given their support for Israel in general and for Netanyahu in particular. This is why these narratives have remained on the sidelines. Hence there is need for giving attention to the possibility of all the three narratives in order to have a proper understanding of what really happened. This is important as this can contribute to peace by isolating the biggest forces of aggression even among their own people, thereby allowing forces to peace to emerge or to become stronger.
Bharat Dogra is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include Planet in Peril, Protecting Earth for Children, Earth without Borders and A Day in 2071.
References and Notes
R1—Our warnings on Hamas were ignored, Israeli women border troops say—by Jamie Dettmer, Politico November 21, 2023.
R2—The women soldiers who warned of pending Hamas attack were ignored—by Yanik Kubovich—Haaretz—November 20, 2023
R3—Videos show Hamas trained for October 7 attack in plain sight –The Wall Street Journal and You Tube
R4–BBC News—12 October 2023–Egypt warned Israel days before Hamas struck, US committee chairman says
R5—Israel had a blueprint of the October 7 attacks a year ago by Ronen Bergman and Adam Goldman —The New York Times, 1 December 2023.
R6—What mass media need to cover regarding Israel-Gaza conflict, Oped by Ralph Nader, Eurasia Review, February 24, 2024.
R7—For years Netanyahu propped up Hamas. Now it has blown up in our faces. Oped by Tal Schneider, The Times of Israel, October 23, 2023.
