At a time when so many strains exist in international relations in the middle of several conflicts, it is important for senior diplomats to avoid making needlessly provocative statements which can create avoidable new tensions and misunderstandings. In fact diplomats are trained for this, but despite this they have been making avoidable provocative statements in recent times.
In this context one statement that must be particularly singled out for its lack of rationality and logic as well as its contribution to further worsening of relationship between two hostile great powers was made on April 9 in Washington.
As Agence-France Presse reported (report published in The Hindustan Times, India, April 11 2024 under the title ‘US warns to hold China accountable if Russia gains in Ukraine war’. This report tells us—“The US warned on Tuesday (April 9) that it will hold China responsible if Moscow makes gains in Ukraine, after Beijing renewed pledges of cooperation during a visit by Russia’s top diplomat.”
To make clear how ridiculous this assertion by the USA is, let us break this into parts.
*there is an ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
*The USA is clearly and very heavily on the side of Ukraine, and in fact many well-informed analysts have referred to this conflict as a proxy war.
* Hence clearly victory of Ukraine is very important for the USA, but now Russia clearly has the upper hand.
*So now in its frustration the USA tells a third country, which is not a party to the ongoing conflict but to which it is hostile for various reasons, that if Russia makes any further gains in the conflict, then the USA will hold it responsible.
This is clearly a very ridiculous statement and has absolutely no logic or rationality. At the same time it is dangerous and provocative. It was best avoided.
Look at its implications. Once the USA, the biggest power says it holds someone responsible for harming its interests, then using its undoubted military and economic might, it can initiate several harmful measures which are not justified at all.
The USA with its wide reach is involved in many conflict situations and takes sides. Imagine the situation if, whenever the results of any conflict are not in accordance with its desires, it accords to itself the right to tell any third country—if the conflict develops one more inch in a way that is not as per our desire, we will hold you responsible and we will punish you.
The third country not involved in the conflict may ask—But how am I responsible if results of the conflict do not go your way?
The USA may then reply—I am telling you so. Is that not enough?
Clearly this is not the way forward for a rules-based international order.
Let us look in more detail at the actual statement. This has in fact been made by someone whose voice is generally regarded as one of the saner voices in the US security establishment.
As per the report quoted above, Kurt Campbell, deputy secretary of state, USA, warned that Russian territorial gains could “alter the balance of power in Europe in ways that are, frankly, unacceptable.”
“We have told China directly, if this continues, it will have an impact on the US-China relationship. We will not sit by and say everything is fine.”
“We will see this not as just a Russian unique set of activities but a conjoined set of activities backed by China but also North Korea. This is antithetical to our interests.”
So apart from China, another country North Korea is also implicated in this statement.
Further this news report says, “The US has repeatedly threatened sanctions if China takes more substantial action to support Russia.”
The implications of this statement go beyond China and North Korea. This can start a new trend that in any conflict any country which does not support the side the US supports, or else has friendly ties with the side the US opposes, would be regarded by the USA as a hostile power which can be punished. Therefore many countries should unitedly oppose this statement before it sets a trend for future actions.
Bharat Dogra is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include Planet in Peril, Protecting Earth for Children, Man over Machine and A Day in 2071.
