CNN, in an analysis (Why a stalled Ukrainian offensive could represent a huge political problem for Zelensky in the U.S., August 9, 2023) by Stephen Collinson, said:
One of Ukraine’s greatest tragedies as it pursues a critical offensive that has, so far, failed to meet its own and Western expectations is that it cannot, by itself, decide its destiny.
The CNN analysis said:
President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government is dependent on a massive pipeline of U.S. and western armaments.
It said:
And Russian President Vladimir Putin will also have a great say in if and when it (the war) ends. So, while battlefield sacrifices will decide how much seized territory Ukraine recovers, the outcome of the war will also be shaped by outside factors, including shifting political forces in the U.S., Moscow and European capitals.
A stalled offensive and a winter stalemate, for instance, would have particular ramifications in the United States since it could heighten questions over U.S. support for the war that will be pushed into an acrimonious election year.
A Slogged Counteroffensive
It said:
Even if Trump is not the GOP nominee in 2024, ebbing public support for the war could hurt Biden.
Therefore, for political, as well as strategic reasons, there is huge pressure on Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive this summer to produce significant battlefield breakthroughs. But so far, the push is more of a slog than a blitzkrieg, raising the possibility that the war could last at least deep into next year.
The analysis said:
Senior U.S. and Western officials spoke of increasingly “sobering” assessments about Ukrainian forces’ ability to retake significant territory. One senior western diplomat bleakly said that while the opportunity exists for Ukraine to make progress, it was “extremely, highly unlikely,” that it would change the balance of the conflict in the coming weeks. Officials both inside and outside Ukraine now admit advances in the offensive are coming more slowly than they had hoped to see.
Ukraine’s Heavy Losses
It said:
Ukraine’s struggles – and heavy combat losses – stem in part from entrenched, layered defensive positions, trenches and minefields that Russia had months to construct and the battlefield reality that an attacking force needs a numerical advantage over well dug-in troops.
It added:
The war has now entered a more difficult stage for Ukraine.
Fatigue In Ukrainian Eyes
The CNN analysis said:
Zelensky is sensitive to any notion that the counteroffensive has been a disappointment, though characteristically stresses he needs more high-grade western weapons.
“The counteroffensive is difficult. It is happening probably slower than how some people may want or can see it,” Zelensky said in a meeting with Latin American media outlets, video of which was released on Tuesday.
According to the cited meeting Zelensky called for patience among allies. He vowed his forces would triumph: “There is fatigue in our eyes.”
It added:
It is too early to say the Ukrainian offensive is running out of time despite the looming arrival of fall weather that could make major maneuvers more difficult.
The analysis asks:
Does the West have the forbearance to give Ukraine the time it needs?
It said:
A lack of big breakthroughs against Russia in the coming weeks will give Western policymakers little choice to consider the wider political context of the war, even if there is no end in sight.
A Ceasefire
Regarding ceasefire, the analysis said:
Despite a high-level international conference in Saudi Arabia to explore potential peace settlements over the weekend, there is so far no clear path even to a ceasefire. Ukraine has little appetite for yielding, as it seeks a return to its 1991 borders – an aspiration that would require an expulsion of Russian forces from annexed Crimea, which looks unlikely right now.
Ultimately, the capacity of both Russia and Ukraine to sustain heavy battlefield losses will be critical in deciding the point at which either side might be open to a settlement – when the cost of continuing to fight might be outweighed by the rewards of ending it.
The moment when this scenario arrives may have a lot to do with the constancy or long-term fragility of U.S. support, which is vital not just to arming Ukraine but to maintaining NATO unity and European resolve.
U.S. Funding
According to the analysis, Biden is already working on a new supplemental funding bill that will likely be ready for Congress to consider by the end of the year. The measure will be the most important test yet of the House GOP majority’s willingness to continue throwing billions of dollars at the war, despite deep skepticism among many Republicans. Any suggestion that Ukraine’s offensive has been bogged down will deepen that skepticism over a prolonged U.S. commitment. While foreign policy is rarely a deciding factor in presidential elections and the war in Ukraine is not a dominant issue in the GOP primary, some party supporters in early voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire do raise it and question US generosity after months of high inflation, which, even if it is cooling, has contributed to persistently dour views of the American economy.
Public Opinion
The analysis said about public opinion in the U.S.:
A new CNN/SSRS poll last week reflected the political complexities in the U.S. over the war, with 55% of voters now saying Congress should not authorize additional funding to support Ukraine. Some 51% said that the U.S. has already done enough to help, while 48% say it should do more.
It said:
In February 2022, 62% said the U.S. should do more to support Ukraine. Like almost everything else in the US, backing for the war effort is deeply polarized.
The CNN poll found 71% of Republicans think that Congress should not authorize new funding while 62% of Democrats say it should. The poll does suggest a sweet spot of sufficient Republican and Democratic support for new funding may exist. But the question is whether House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who has a tiny majority and only serves as the pleasure of the most pro-Trump Republicans, is willing or able to pass a big aid bill on a bipartisan basis. The political dynamics in the House represent a rather precarious foundation for Ukraine’s vital U.S. support, underscoring why a stalled offensive could represent a political disaster for Zelensky in the United States as well as a strategic loss for Ukraine at home.
Downplaying The Idea That Ukraine Is Losing Momentum
CNN said:
The White House is downplaying the idea that Ukraine is losing momentum and for now has the luxury of time. John Kirby, the National Security Council’s coordinator for strategic communications, told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Tuesday that Ukraine was making some progress, and hinted that a new assistance package, potentially including mine sweeping equipment and HIMARS artillery sets, could be coming this week.
Still, given ebbing U.S. public support for the war, Biden could face a complicated task in explaining prolonged U.S. support for Ukraine during another bloody summer as he runs for reelection next year.
It said about Trump:
The former president has been loudly warning that Biden’s stance on Ukraine could lead to World War III and a nuclear conflict.
The CNN analysis said:
When U.S. voters decide their own futures in November 2024, there is a good chance they will be playing a large role in sealing Ukraine’s fate as well.
Ukrainians Are Not Going As Far As Or As Fast As They Would Like
A CNN report (Western allies receive increasingly ‘sobering’ updates on Ukraine’s counteroffensive: ‘This is the most difficult time of the war’, August 8. 2023) by Jim Sciutto, Chief National Security Correspondent, said:
Weeks into Ukraine’s highly anticipated counteroffensive, Western officials describe increasingly “sobering” assessments about Ukrainian forces’ ability to retake significant territory, four senior US and western officials briefed on the latest intelligence told CNN.
“They are still going to see, for the next couple of weeks, if there is a chance of making some progress. But for them to really make progress that would change the balance of this conflict, I think, it’s extremely, highly unlikely,” a senior western diplomat told CNN.
“Our briefings are sobering. We are reminded of the challenges they face,” said Rep. Mike Quigley, an Illinois Democrat who recently returned from meetings in Europe with U.S. commanders training Ukrainian armored forces. “This is the most difficult time of the war.”
The primary challenge for Ukrainian forces is the continued difficulty of breaking through Russia’s multi-layered defensive lines in the eastern and southern parts of the country, which are marked by tens of thousands of mines and vast networks of trenches. Ukrainian forces have incurred staggering losses there, leading Ukrainian commanders to hold back some units to regroup and reduce casualties.
“Russians have a number of defensive lines and they [Ukrainian forces] haven’t really gone through the first line,” said a senior Western diplomat. “Even if they would keep on fighting for the next several weeks, if they have not been able to make more breakthroughs throughout these last seven, eight weeks, what is the likelihood that they will suddenly, with more depleted forces, make them? Because the conditions are so hard.”
The report cited a senior U.S. official, who said the U.S. recognizes the difficulties Ukrainian forces are facing, though retains hope for renewed progress.
“We all recognize this is going harder and slower than anyone would like – including the Ukrainians – but we still believe there’s time and space for them to be able make progress,” this official said.
White House National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications John Kirby addressed the speed of Ukraine’s counteroffensive Tuesday, telling CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on “The Situation Room” that “even the Ukrainians … including President Zelensky, have said that they are not going as far as or as fast as he would like.”
The report said:
Multiple officials said the approach of fall, when weather and fighting conditions are expected to worsen, gives Ukrainian forces a limited window to push forward.
Bottom of Form
Western officials also say the slow progress has exposed the difficulty of transforming Ukrainian forces into combined mechanized fighting units, sometimes with as few as eight weeks of training on western-supplied tanks and other new weapons systems. The lack of progress on the ground is one reason Ukrainian forces have been striking more often inside Russian territory “to try and show Russian vulnerability,” said a senior US military official.
The report cited Ukraine’s armed forces chief, Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, who U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley that Ukrainian forces are step by step creating conditions for advancing. Zaluzhnyi added that he had told Milley that Ukraine’s defenses were steadfast.
On the situation in the south, where Ukrainian forces have struggled to gain ground, Zaluzhnyi said, “Heavy fighting continues, Ukrainian troops step by step continue to create conditions for advancing. The initiative is on our side.”
The CNN report said:
These latest assessments represent a marked change from the optimism at the start of the counteroffensive. These officials say those expectations were “unrealistic” and are now contributing to pressure on Ukraine from some in the West to begin peace negotiations, including considering the possibility of territorial concessions.
Putin is waiting for this. He can buy time, Quigley said.
Some officials fear the widening gap between expectations and results will spark a “blame game” among Ukrainian officials and their western supporters, which may create divisions within the alliance.
“The problem, of course, here is the prospect of the blame game that the Ukrainians would then blame it on us,” said a senior western diplomat.
Last month at the Aspen Security Forum, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky pointed to the slow arrival of more advanced weapons systems from the West as reason for Ukrainian forces’ slow progress so far.
“We did plan to start [the counteroffensive] in spring, but we did not,” Zelensky said. “Because frankly, we have not enough munitions, and armaments, and not enough properly trained brigades. I mean properly trained in these weapons.”
Ukraine War Report: Kharkov Oblast City Planning Evacuation As Russians Approach
A report by The War Zone said on August 10, 2023:
Russian troops are now less than five miles from Kupiansk.
As Russia presses the main thrust of its offensive in Kharkov Oblast closer to the city of Kupiansk, officials there are planning a mandatory civilian evacuation. Ukrainian military officials say Russian troops are now less than five miles from the city. It is a situation that, if unchecked, could impact Kiev’s ongoing counteroffensive.
“More than 11,000 people, including 600 children, are expected to be evacuated,” Kharkiv Regional State Administrator Oleg Synegubov said Wednesday on his Telegram channel. “Everyone will be provided with the necessary assistance, evacuees will be provided with temporary housing in safer areas.”
The evacuation plan was discussed at a meeting Wednesday, said Synegubov, as the impact of war gets closer.
“The enemy has significantly increased the shelling of settlements close to the front line and continues to terrorize the civilian population, including using airstrikes,” he said. “Under such conditions, the risks to the life and health of civilians have increased significantly.”
The evacuation plans in Kupiansk are being drawn up as the Ukrainian military says the main thrust of the Russian offensive in the region is pushing toward the city.
The Russians have created an offensive group consisting of eight “Storm-Z assault units” to take Kupiansk, Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, told Ukrainska Pravda Wednesday.
At the same time, the Russians were advancing from the area of Novoselivske – about 16 miles southeast in Luhansk Oblast, Syrskyi told the publication.
Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said Wednesday on her Telegram channel: The intensity of hostilities and enemy shelling is high. For some positions, there are several position changes per day.”
The Russian Defense Ministry said its forces have achieved success in their push toward Kupiansk.
“In the course of combat operations in Kupiansk direction, assault groups of the 6th Combined Arms Army captured four strongholds, five observation posts, destroyed a U.K.-manufactured Spartan Armored Personnel Carrier, one supply point and destroyed up to a company of infantry from the 67th Separate Mechanized Brigade near Mankovka tract,” the Russian MoD claimed. “In addition, during the day the enemy carried out nine counterattacks by units of the 67th and 14th separate mechanized brigades on Russian positions close to Sinkivka and Mankovka tract. All counterattacks were successfully repelled. The enemy losses were up to a platoon of manpower.”
An evacuation from Kupiansk would mark the second time since March that officials there have urged residents to flee to safer places because of the fierce fighting in the area.
In September, Ukraine recaptured all of Kupiansk, crossing over the Oskil River. It was a key moment in its successful ‘lightning’ Kharkiv counteroffensive.
The current fighting comes weeks after Ukrainian military officials claimed that Russia had amassed more than 100,000 troops and 900 tanks in that part of the battlefield.
Given the slow and costly nature of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and the Donbas, any Russian breakthrough in Kharkov Oblast would be of great concern to Kiev. It could force Ukraine to reallocate forces and equipment to shore up that front, further diminishing its ability to liberate territory, up to and including Crimea.
A Disconnect In NATO Training
The War Zone’s report said:
Speaking of Kupiansk, Ukrainian soldiers stationed there say there is a large disconnect between the type of training provided by NATO allies and the fighting that actually takes place.
“I do not want to say anything against our partners, but they do not quite understand our situation and how we are fighting,” a senior intelligence sergeant in the newly formed 41st Mechanized Brigade – who goes by the name “Dutchman” – told openDemocracy. “That is why the main training and the integrated training happens here.”
To date, the U.S. and NATO allies have trained more than 60,000 Ukrainian troops. “Yet NATO can only currently offer Ukrainian soldiers basic training, shifting the burden of vital combat training back to Ukraine,” openDemocracy reported Tuesday. “Time constraints mean that stage two training does not always happen, or happen in full, in Ukraine or the West.”
“It would be better if either [the instructors] came here to see what we are facing or we went there to train their instructors to train our troops,” Dutchman told openDemocracy.
Members of the 41st Brigade told the publication that their instructors often used examples of NATO operations in the Middle East, where the objective is to clear houses and identify potential insurgents among the local population.
But “that’s not really relevant to us,” said Dutchman.
“For the most part, [Western instructors] have fought wars in cities and towns – urban settings. We are on flat ground a lot of the time,” said Dutchman.
The tactics that Ukrainian officers and commanders badly want their troops to learn while being trained abroad are either only part of the syllabus or not featured at all.
“We need people to understand how to effectively clear trenches, enter them, how to throw grenades effectively, how not to trip on booby traps, to understand what grenades the [Russians] throw – essentially to understand the enemy,” explained Dutchman.
Billions Of Dollars
The Biden administration will announce a request for billions of dollars in additional funding for weapons and other aid for Ukraine on Thursday, Politico is reporting. The outlet cites “two people with direct knowledge of the timing of the request.”
Politico’s sources did not provide details on the amount of the request or what might weapons it might contain.
The request for additional money to help Ukraine comes amid an already pitched government funding battle on Capitol Hill, Politico noted. “Several conservative lawmakers maintain deep skepticism over giving the country another dime without a fuller accounting of how assistance has been spent to date,” the publication stated.
Government funding dries up at the end of the current fiscal year on Sept. 30, and House and Senate appropriators are anticipating that money for Ukraine, Taiwan and disaster relief could ride to passage with a stopgap spending patch that averts a shutdown.
The Pentagon has declined to talk about any additional funding requests. But regardless of political fights, it still has about $6 billion in Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) funding to spend this fiscal year, Pentagon Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters on Tuesday. That represents money the Pentagon found earlier this year after an accounting revaluation. PDA packages are made up of weapons already in the Pentagon’s stocks as opposed to having to purchase new ones.
German Aid
Germany on Wednesday announced it was providing Ukraine with two additional Patriot air defense launchers in its latest package of aid. That’s in addition to the system Berlin already provided in April that consisted of German and Dutch components.
The package also includes more than 6,500 rounds of 155mm howitzer smoke rounds, 100 MG5 machines guns, additional trucks and other equipment.
Swedish Aid
Ukraine relies heavily on the SpaceX Starlink satellite communications system for relatively secure, reliable and remote comms. And now Ukraine is getting some additional terminals, this time from a Swedish company.
Satcube will transfer about a hundred of its satellite communications terminals to Ukraine, the Swedish Dagens Nyheter news outlet reported Wednesday.
Satcube CEO Jakob Kallmér said Ukraine received the first terminals in early summer.
Unlike Starlink, which uses its own constellation of satellites, Satcube relies on the geostationary satellite network of the American operator Intelsat Ltd.
U.S. Humvee
Another video of a U.S.-supplied vehicle hitting a mine emerged on social media. The Humvee in the video below saw its engine compartment blown up by an apparent mine. It is unknown from this video what happened to the troops it was hauling. (https://twitter.com/Trollstoy88/status/1688819400621879296?s=20)
